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The end of hegemony?

L'amministratore del declino americano

da Il Foglio.it

New York. Il saggio più interessante sulla politica estera di Barack Obama è stato appena pubblicato dalla nuova e bella bipartisan World Affairs magazine. He wrote Robert Kagan , historical and intellectual second-generation neoconservative, former adviser to John McCain last election, but especially the author of one of the most widely discussed books of the post September 11. In 2002, Kagan wrote "Paradise and Power", published in the European premiere in these columns, the essay on the transatlantic relationship that has divided the European chancelleries and marked differences between America and the traditional Franco-German axis. The new Kagan wrote in an analysis is negative, but serious, original and well-reasoned ideology underlying the foreign policy of the White House . On 20 January, the Bureau Obama makes the first year of life. Newspapers and television have already discussed his approach to international politics, pointing out the similarities and differences with his predecessor George W. Bush. The failed attack on Christmas held on the Amsterdam-Detroit flight showed the physiological vulnerability of U.S. national defense system, but despite the criticism of former President Dick Cheney has also confirmed the soundness of Obama in dealing with and want to win the war against Islamic terrorism.

Kagan's argument goes beyond this debate and journalism. The analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace acknowledges that Obama's presidency will be assessed good or bad outcome of its policy on Afghanistan and Iran, but invites us to reflect on another point: Obama is in place with a broader change in American foreign policy that could have a more lasting impact on the Middle East crisis "The Obama presidency might go down in history as the moment when the United States have abandoned the grand strategy adopted after the Second World War and taken a different relationship with the rest of the world .

Robert Kagan's thesis is this: Obama is convinced that it was over the U.S. and he and his men took over the role of director of the decline, an architect American post of the new order. It 's the end of the Great strategy developed after the Second World War and continued post-Soviet era with the two Bush and Bill Clinton. According to Kagan, was based on three pillars: a military and economic supremacy, a global network of formal political and military alliances, particularly with democratic regimes and a system of free trade and open market. The idea, writes Kagan, was to create a "balance of power heavily in favor of free countries" . The nations were not free from control and transform over time. It was not a position right or left, nor a matter of dispute between hawks and doves. It was the American position, elaborata nel famoso “Long Telegram” di George Kennan del 1946 e confermata nel documento strategico NSC-68 scritto da Paul Nitze quattro anni dopo.

L’obiettivo, sintetizzava il presidente democratico Harry Truman, era innanzitutto rafforzare “le nazioni che amano la libertà” e poi “creare le condizioni per portare finalmente libertà personale e felicità a tutta l’umanità” . Secondo Kagan, Obama e il suo team hanno divelto due dei tre pilastri della strategia degli ultimi sessant’anni. Invece che provare a perpetuare la supremazia americana, cercano di amministrare quello che considerano un inevitabile declino rispetto alla crescita of new great powers. On China, the White House are not going to have hope, no commitment to prevent overtaking, but try to readjust the U.S. policy: "The new strategy - Kagan writes - need to be accommodating to the rising powers of the world, rather than trying to curb their ambitions. Being accommodating is to recognize China and Russia that the rising powers have always wanted: greater respect for their political hegemony at home and more within their regional areas. "Obama is also re-examine the network of international alliances, despite all the talk about multilateralism, enhance cooperation with Russia and China, according to Kagan, is incompatible with the old alliances. NATO and bilateral agreements were signed on its Asian to hold Russia and China. The Administration considered these treaties as relics of the Cold War, and points to a new international architecture based on a new consortium of powers: "The world of the G20" . Mistake, says Kagan, who sets realistic approach to Obama. There is also an aspect idealistic and naive in its strategy.

Obama believes that all great powers have the same interests and that America must show the world, good intentions and appear as a disinterested promoter of the common good, without taking sides. According to Kagan, Obama wants to use American power to be everybody's friend. The risk neutrality and, ultimately, the decline of America.

Christian Rocca